Poking the Bear

Previously, we’ve seen many writers refer to Elon Musk’s quote from last year that, with the United States’ reaction to the Russo-Ukraine war, “We are sleepwalking our way into World War III…”

With the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February of 2022, initial world reaction was very adverse, and the U.S. offered support, albeit piecemeal. But it was support nevertheless, and soon American ordnance, along with humanitarian aid, was involved on the ground. This was a step or two significantly closer to U.S.–Russian direct conflict than even the sometimes touchy situation where both countries’ militaries operate as non-aligned forces in Syria.

Over two and a half years of the ongoing struggle, U.S. audiences have repeatedly heard that Joe Biden has committed another X billion dollars to Ukraine support; the increments add up. But it’s not just incremental expenditures; the weaponry provided has ratcheted up in value and lethality to the point that just this week, Biden OK’d Ukraine launching a U.S. missile at a target in Russia, and Russia responded with an ICBM launched at Ukraine (the first ever use of said device in war) and threatened the use of nuclear weapons (again).

Almost a year ago in We've Always Been at War with Eastasia I tried to fathom where that conflict might be headed, and possible ends are coming into focus.

Absent resolution, escalation looms. Greatest amongst the threats from that is a nuclear exchange about which, we the citizenry, can do little besides die. Presuming Putin sees past that, our next worry is that the war spills outside of Ukraine’s European borders; earlier in 2023 Poland’s ambassador to France is reported to have said that if Ukraine loses, Poland will join the war against Russia. Oh joy, a NATO country at war with Russia. There goes the neighborhood.

And what is to follow? My own inclination is to believe that Biden now wants to avoid bringing it to decision (as if he could), “gifting” it to whomsoever shall follow him. Considering his past displays of “expertise” in foreign affairs, it’s doubtful that he has thought it through to what the ends might be. Unsurprising in our culture that rather than advertise the price of things prefers to concentrate on the monthly payments (just enough to keep it going).

Is the grumpily lame-duck President Biden trying to kickstart WWIII? Or is he just playing a dangerous game in order to leave the incoming President Trump with the most prickly of pears to deal with? Also, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy has frequently stated his aim is to remove Russian forces altogether from Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, which is just not feasible with solely Ukrainian troops or even with other Euro troops.

Throw in a new development from Gallup indicating that a majority of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions in order to pursue a negotiated end to the combat. It is tough to imagine an agreement that any of the parties would accept as permanent.

When this war erupted the second time (after Putin seized the Crimea with no consequences in 2014) there was widespread sympathy for Ukraine, and support was forthcoming. But as time has gone on the U.S.’ support has revealed itself to be a huge money pit, as well as a strategic liability – that being that it has resulted in the facilitation of the Sino-Russian alliance, U.S. weapons stocks are critically low, and with the sanctions on Russia being widely ignored, we’re reminded that, regardless of treaties or other agreements, the less powerful nations acknowledge power through their conduct.

With time the sentiments of the U.S. body politic have begun to take a partisan appearance, and, while it’s definitely not correct to broad brush here, it’s the Right that is going cold while the Left wants to continue to prosecute this war, even as the stakes increase.

For now, then, we have the Left urging continued support of a smaller country (Ukraine) resisting takeover by Kremlin proxies (the Donbas separatists) with the Right wanting to get out of the war, whereas in recent memory we had the Right urging continued support of a smaller country (South Vietnam) resisting takeover by another Kremlin proxy (North Vietnam) with the Left wanting to get out of the war.

False equivalency?

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P.S. Subsequent to posting the above I've been watching reaction around the world. Biden's recent actions regarding permissions to use U.S. weaponry against the nuclear armed and aroused Russian state, supposedly on behalf of the squalidly corrupt Ukrainian ruling class but as much in service to his party-over-nation ego.

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UPDATE

Rather than summarizing, I'll just direct your attention to : Russia and Ukraine Likely to Ignore Biden’s Attempts to Sabotage Trump’s Ukraine Peace Effort.