‘We’ve always been at war with eastasia.’

Total war in Ukraine, or another endless war? Like it or not, we’ve stepped in it, and cleaning our shoe appears problematic at best.

We’re now largely beyond asking how vital Ukrainian sovereignty is to the United States’ national interests, a hardly clear cut question, and now we have to consider if our government’s actions reveal any kind of coherent or realistic objective.

When Vladimir Putin initiated his invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 the Western world’s reaction was unsurprisingly negative, but this time more so than when he rolled into Georgia or the Crimea. American leadership made the ironic, considering our Southern border, statement that a nation's borders should be inviolate.

And so now the US and the EU are involved in a proxy war with Russia that has so far resulted in somewhere between 200,000 to 300,000 deaths, massive destruction, a huge monetary drain on the U.S., and a grim geopolitical realignment now that we’ve made the way clear for the Sino-Russian alliance to blossom. And that’s not to mention that the war is currently at a visible stalemate, with WWI style trench warfare grinding up the bodies.

While our leadership’s conduct belies indecisiveness, with occasional support for the idea that Russia must leave Ukraine standing in contrast to Biden’s earlier offer of a fifth of Ukrainian territory to Russia (shades of the Munich Agreement); we are left to fathom what might come.

With the combat at a standstill, and the hoped for Ukrainian Spring 2023 Offensive having failed, it seems impossible to believe that Russian occupiers can be forcibly removed from the Ukrainian east with just Ukrainian troops alone. Given that, what ends might issue? Biden has just said that the  US Military may get pulled into direct conflict with Russia. Alternatively, 20 year proxy war with Russia (and China)? A negotiated armistice that leaves Russia in parts of Eastern Ukraine and satisfies no one?

Absent resolution, escalation looms. Greatest amongst the threats from that is a nuclear exchange about which, we the citizenry, can do little besides die. Presuming Putin sees past that, our next worry is that the war spills outside of Ukraine’s European borders; earlier in 2023 Poland’s ambassador to France is reported to have said that if Ukraine loses, Poland will join the war against Russia. Oh joy, a NATO country at war with Russia. There goes the neighborhood.

And what is to follow? My own inclination is to believe that Biden now wants to avoid bringing it to decision (as if he could), “gifting” it to whomsoever shall follow him. Considering his past displays of “expertise” in foreign affairs, it’s doubtful that he has thought it through to what the ends might be. Unsurprising in our culture that rather than advertise the price of things prefers to concentrate on the monthly payments (just enough to keep it going).

I’ve struggled with expressing what determination could result. No outcomes look great for the United States, or the EU. Look at a map of the countries supporting sanctions against Russia – the “whole world” is not with us. Besides Australia, the Southern Hemisphere said, “That’s y’all’s fight, we’ll take the winner.” China, India, and NATO member Turkey appear happy to buy Russian oil at a bargain.

What of Ukraine? One way or another it will require massive reconstruction, and I can guess where Ukrainians imagine a lot of the requisite money will originate. Russia may, as well, should the war develop so badly that combat comes to its cities. Should Putin be deposed his successor may, or may not, accept a negotiated end to hostilities (for the present), but whatever transpires, it seems doubtful that Russians will be kindly disposed to the U.S. for some time to come.

Through October of 2023 the U.S. has provided $78B in aid to Ukraine – this does not include whatever might be the result of current budget negotiations – and the recent re-eruption of war in Israel and Gaza presents another scenario where we have to decide at what point we prioritize the needs of our own country.