After Ukraine

Looking past some of the Right's "We've always been at war with Eastasia" fear of never-ending war to support the military-industrial complex, weakening Russia seems to many to be a positive in the near term, possibly even in the long term. But trying to apply the thoughts of Hazlitt and Friedman, I wonder that some of the other likely consequences don't seem to be being considered.

When there's a triad of powerful nations a world order is established, with or without any declaration thereof, around which less powerful nations arrange their business whether through alliances, treaties, or just plain acknowledgement with their conduct. That triad has, of course, been the US, China, and Russia. Now, with the heretofore existing power structure triad likely losing at least one leg with Russia's devaluation as a world power we'll likely be reminded of how geopolitical nature abhors a vacuum.

In Russia's sphere we're already seeing fresh tensions between the Azeris and the Armenians threatening to relight the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and how soon before there are rumblings anew in Chechnya and Georgia as awareness grows that Russia may no longer be able to keep a lid on things. This all presupposes that Russia will ultimately be devalued on the world stage post the Ukrainian war, but that may be a Western centric view that ignores the sizable portion of the world that hasn't taken a side.

And that's just with Russian affairs. I really don't know what to believe amongst all the reports I see of internal weakness in China, but there are plenty. While China's Belt and Road Initiative has certainly spread their influence around the world, it's also added to the list of those annoyed with China besides its Asian neighbors. Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others are definitely unhappy with the Sino appropriation of the South China Sea.

With China in mind, perhaps we should consider how the third leg, the U.S., fares in early 2023. Presently we stare impotently at a Chinese spy balloon we are unable to do anything about. Our present Administration seems hell-bent on weakening this country, and they're succeeding. I doubt we'll disappear, but our geopolitical weight is evaporating. Need I add that at least half this nation's populace lacks confidence in our government. As Zeihan often notes, the U.S. Navy's maintenance of freedom of navigation for everyone since WWII has been a critical part of the existing world order up to now, allowing for the international exercise of capitalism that has been raising the world out of poverty.

So, if one, two, or three legs of the triad get significantly shortened, and no nukes are tossed in the shuffle, who's going to be the big dog? The Middle East and Western Europe don't appear to be candidates, and I can't see a world power emerging from sub-Saharan Africa or South America in the near future. India?